PropEdge

⚠️ Heads up

🧪 Experimental tool

Personal project, not financial advice. Models are statistical estimates based on season averages — they don't know about injuries, weather, or lineup changes. Use alongside your own research.

📅 Data schedule

10:00 AM ET — morning odds snapshot
Every 30 min — slate + odds refreshed when games are within 2.5h
8:00 AM ET — outcomes recorded (previous night's games)

Odds shown are DraftKings. Props are typically posted 3–12 hours before first pitch.

🧠 How the model works

For each prop, a matchup feature set is built using prior-season stats:

Batter: AVG, ISO, barrel%, hard-hit%, exit velocity, K%, BB%
Pitcher: K rate, HR/9, xERA, hard-hit% allowed
Splits: batter vs. pitcher handedness
Park: HR factor adjustment

Edge = model probability minus book's implied probability.

📊 Baseline accuracy

Backtested across 2023–2025 seasons (1.7M props):

Directional accuracy 80.7% — right 4 in 5 times
Pick accuracy 40.2% on high-confidence picks (vs ~21% base)
Brier score 0.138 (0.25 = random)
Best markets: SB (AUC 0.70), BB (0.63), HR (0.60)

💡 How to use

Props auto-load for today's slate
Sort by Model% or Edge for best plays
Filter by Game, Team, or Market for specific matchups
Click + on any row to add it to the Parlay Builder
Hover the ℹ icon on a row to see model reasons

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Click + on any prop row to add it to your parlay

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#	Player	Game	Market	Odds	Imp%	Model%	Fair	Edge	EV	Quality↓

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Admin Panel

⚠️ Heads up

📅 Data schedule

🧠 How the model works

📊 Baseline accuracy

💡 How to use